I love making Oscar picks. Seriously, I live for this event every year. Nothing gives me greater pleasure than choosing correctly amongst the nominees who the winner will be in each category. This is possibly a pathetic state of affairs, but I’ve come to accept it and you will too. ANYWAY, no doubt many of you will be filling out ballots and many of you will have no idea what to do. I can’t guarantee I’ve got the picks right, of course, that would be insane. But I have a pretty solid track record, so I feel fairly confident with what I’m about to share. For those of you who will no doubt just go ahead and make your own picks, which I encourage just so you can’t come back here and blame me for your loss, just remember that the Oscars are less about exemplary anything and more about politics. There’s almost always a rhyme or reason to what wins and why, regardless of how deserving you think it might be. Making Oscar picks is less about what you want and more about what you know.

Best Picture

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall, Cean Chaffin
• Frost/Nixon – Ron Howard, Brian Grazer, Eric Fellner
• Milk – Dan Jinks and Bruce Cohen
• The Reader – Anthony Minghella, Sydney Pollack, Redmond Morris, Donna Gigliotti
• Slumdog Millionaire – Christian Colson

The competition in this category is pretty slim this year. A decade ago, Benjamin Button would have been the natural choice based simply on how “epic” it is: Long running times used to translate into best picture awards. Consider the period from ‘93 to ‘97, when the winners were Schindler’s List, Forrest Gump, Braveheart, The English Patient and Titanic, each of which had the longest running time of any of its competition. On the other hand, the past four years have seen The Aviator lose to Million Dollar Baby, Brokeback Mountain and Munich both lost to Crash and last year both There Will Be Blood and Atonement told stories that took place over the course of many years, only to lose to a dark, relatively little movie like No Country For Old Men. Three of the nominees in this category compress a great number of years into the length of a movie, and all three of them will lose for varying reasons: Benjamin Button just doesn’t seem very well liked and could easily become the biggest bust in Oscar history (an “honor” currently held by The Color Purple, which was nominated 10 times in 1985 and went home completely statueless) and The Reader just wasn’t very good (and for that matter, neither was Frost/Nixon). If anything will upset, it’ll be Milk. The Academy likes to see themselves as topical and relavant to the modern world and this often manifests itself in presenting awards to films that relate in some way to topical issues. The California Supreme Court will hear arguments regarding Proposition 8 on March 5, 2009, so the Academy’s contribution towards the issue could end up being a big win for Milk. That said, the Academy always knows just how out of touch and irrelevant it has become, a fact further solidified by the lack of any significant box office “bump” for any of the five nominees. In an effort to seem as current and relevant as possible, the little golden naked guy is going to the most crowd pleasing, popular film in the bunch. Pick: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director

• Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
• Stephen Daldry – The Reader
• David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
• Gus Van Sant – Milk

Somebody out there loves Stephen Daldry. He has directed three feature films and all three of them have been nominated for both best picture and in this category. Unfortunately, The Reader isn’t nearly as good as either Billy Elliot or The Hours, neither of which won either category and that losing streak will continue here. Ron Howard’s prominence in Hollywood certainly contributed more towards his nomination than the quality of his film, so he’s out. That leaves us with Danny Boyle, David Fincher and Gus Van Sant, all three of whom are well respected modern auteurs who make consistently great films for the most part. Based solely on lifetime achievement, the award would probably go to David Fincher. Unfortunately, Benji Button backlash will hurt Fincher’s chances. If there’s an upset waiting to happen, it’s Gus Van Sant. That said, Milk relies more on the strong performances within and excellent writing than it does on the visionary style of its director. Add to this everything I said about these film’s nominations in the best picture category, and the choice seems obvious. Pick: Danny Boyle

Best Actor

• Richard Jenkins – The Visitor
• Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
• Sean Penn – Milk
• Brad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler

Mickey Rourke has pretty much swept this category throughout the award’s season and as a result he’s the clear favorite. If anyone will upset, it’ll be Sean Penn for his excellent portrayal of Harvey Milk. A lot of people might point out that the Academy does have a history of rewarding actors who play gay men (Tom Hanks in Philadelphia, William Hurt in Kiss of the Spider Woman), but there’s also a rich history of actors playing the role of a fighter who’ve won, too, going as far back as Wallace Beery in The Champ (1932) up to Robert DeNiro in Raging Bull (and if you want to get really technical, Hilary Swank won the Best Actress category as a fighter, too, in Million Dollar Baby). I’ll just say that if you’re going to pick an upset, Sean Penn is your only other option. Pick: Mickey Rourke

Best Actress

• Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
• Angelina Jolie – Changeling
• Melissa Leo – Frozen River
• Meryl Streep – Doubt
• Kate Winslet – The Reader

Sweeping both actress categories at the Golden Globes pretty much sealed the deal for Kate Winslet’s impending victory, not to mention that the Academy does tend to favor the oft nominated and Kate’s already been shut out five times. Simply on the strength of performance, I’d have to vote Melissa Leo, but with a little independent movie like Frozen River, the nomination often is the award; same thing applies with Anne Hathaway’s somewhat overrated performance (if anyone was going to get nominated from Rachel Getting Married, it should have been Rosemarie DeWitt the titular Rachel). Angelina will no doubt win an Oscar someday, and she will no doubt deserve it, but it won’t be this time around. Meryl Streep is always a threat, I suppose, but I’m, uh, doubtful.¹ Pick: Kate Winslet

Best Supporting Actor

• Josh Brolin – Milk
• Robert Downey, Jr. – Tropic Thunder
• Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
• Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
• Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road

I could write up a little commentary on why Heath Ledger will win, but what’s the point? If he somehow doesn’t win, it will pretty much be the apocalypse. The Academy will be accused by the conventional moviegoer as having lost complete touch with any sort of reality, and I’ll have to agree. Pick: Heath Ledger

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams – Doubt
• Penélope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Viola Davis – Doubt
• Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler

This category has a reputation for being unpredictable, the most famous example being Marisa Tomei’s win in 1992 for My Cousin Vinny. Here we have Marisa Tomei again, but her chances are pretty slim this time around. Frankly, if she does win, I suspect that all credibility in this category will have been erased permanently from future Oscar ceremonies. They’ll simply have to rename the award to something more appropriate, like “The Tomei.” That’s not a knock on her work in The Wrestler, mind you; I think she’s pretty spectacular in the film. She just doesn’t have a shot. Viola Davis could have won, but she’s only in the film for about ten short (albeit really glorious) minutes; factor in the ever concerning “splitting of the vote” with Amy Adams, and her chances dwindle a little more. (Variety has a really fun article on past occurances of vote splitting here.) As for Taraji P. Henson, well, she’s really wonderful in the movie, but there’s not a lot of love in the air for Benji Button, despite it’s plethora of nominations. Figure on Penélope Cruz: She plays a little crazy, she’s a past nominee (Volver). Plus there’s the Woody Allen factor: Dianne Wiest has won this category twice thanks to the neurotic auteur and Mira Sorvino once. Pick: Penélope Cruz

Best Original Screenplay

• WALL-E – Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter
• Happy-Go-Lucky – Mike Leigh
• Frozen River – Courtney Hunt
• In Bruges – Martin McDonagh
• Milk – Dustin Lance Black

One of the strongest categories this year, all five of these movies are exemplary achievements in screenwriting. Honestly, you could pick a name out of a hat and not be disappointed with the result. WALL-E is really beloved, but a lot of the buzz around it is for the silent bits, which doesn’t bode well for success in this category. This is Mike Leigh’s fourth nomination, and it’ll likely be his fourth without a victory, which isn’t a knock on the film so much as a result of what most people understand to be Leigh’s writing process: He writes the screenplay largely based on improvisational rehearsals with his actors prior to shooting. Frozen River is a remarkably lean and effective screenplay, but it suffers from the underexposure factor. In Bruges is largely memorable for the snappy dialogue, which would normally make it a favorite, but Milk will largely get shut out by Slumdog in just about every other category, which means if the Academy is going to honor Milk, it’s going to be here. Pick: Milk

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
• Frost/Nixon – Peter Morgan
• The Reader – David Hare
• Slumdog Millionaire – Simon Beaufoy
• Doubt – John Patrick Shanley

What’s most interesting here is the pretty incredible Oscar pedigree on display: Eric Roth won this category in 1994 for Forrest Gump and John Patrick Shanley won the original screenplay category in 1987 for Moonstruck. The other three have all been nominated: Peter Morgan (The Queen) and Simon Beaufoy (The Full Monty) in the original screenplay category and David Hare for The Hours in this category. What does all this mean? Well, absolutely nothing, I suppose, but it’s interesting, huh? Your best bet here is probably the safest one. Pick: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Animated Feature

• Bolt – Chris Williams and Byron Howard
• Kung Fu Panda – Mark Osborne and John Stevenson
• WALL-E – Andrew Stanton

In my estimation, this category’s very existence is largely responsible for WALL-E getting snubbed for a best picture nod. Winning here is the consolation prize. Pick: WALL-E

Best Foreign Language Film

• Revanche (Austria) in German – Götz Spielmann
• The Class (France) in French – Laurent Cantet
• The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany) in German
• Departures (Japan) in Japanese
• Waltz with Bashir (Israel) in Hebrew – Ari Folman

Given that I’ve only seen one film in this category, Waltz With Bashir, I can’t make a critical opinion as to what should win. I can, however, say that Waltz With Bashir is the clear favorite in this field. The Class could sneak in and take it, I suppose, but both films have earned high praise from critics and I suspect that Bashir’s unique mix of animation and documentary will give it the push it needs to grab the Oscar. Pick: Waltz With Bashir

Best Animated Short

• La Maison En Petits Cubes – Kunio Kato
• Lavatory – Lovestory – Konstantin Bronzit
• Oktapodi – Emud Mokhberi and Thierry Marchand
• Presto – Doug Sweetland
• This Way Up – Alan Smith and Adam Foulkes

I have unfortunately not had the pleasure of seeing La Maison En Petits Cubes. All of the other nominees are very good, however, which makes it a tough choice. Oktapodi is a little too slight with a running time of barely 2 minutes; Lavatory – Lovestory is a cute idea, animated in the style of simple black & white drawings, but it probably runs too long (relatively speaking, of course) at about 9 minutes. This Way Up, about a couple of devoted casketbearers who are willing to return from the afterlife to deliver their deceased charge to its burial site, is far and away my favorite in this category, and if you haven’t seen it you should really dig up a copy. That said, it’s hard to argue against Pixar, and Presto’s hungry little rabbit delivers. It’s funny, it’s adorable, and it’s one of the easiest votes the Academy got to make this year. Pick: Presto

Best Art Direction

• Changeling – James J. Murakami, Gary Fettis
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Donald Graham Burt, Victor J. Zolfo
• The Dark Knight – Nathan Crowley, Peter Lando
• The Duchess – Michael Carlin, Rebecca Alleway
• Revolutionary Road – Kristi Zea, Debra Schutt

It would be easy to make the mistake and thing that Victorian period pieces win this category with any regularity. Truth of the matter is that if there’s no musical competing for the art direction Oscar, then there’s no sure thing. All told, there isn’t really a clear favorite in this category, but you can probably safely eliminate The Duchess, Revolutionary Road and Changeling. I’ve already discussed the challenges that Benjamin Button face in this year’s Oscars, which leaves the massively popular The Dark Knight as the safest bet. If nothing else, it’s more or less guaranteed that every Academy voter saw it, which probably can’t be said of the other four. Pick: The Dark Knight

Best Cinematography

• Changeling – Tom Stern
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Claudio Miranda
• The Dark Knight – Wally Pfister
• The Reader – Chris Menges, Roger Deakins
• Slumdog Millionaire – Anthony Dod Mantle

There is a prevailing sense that this category, along with film editing, tends to go to the winner of best picture. It’s easy to assume this fallacy given how closely the director, cinematographer and editor have to work together to achieve the final product. That said, the full trio does not win nearly as often as you might think: Only three times in the last decade has there been a sweep. As for the nominees here, you can probably safely eliminate Changeling and The Reader from your ballot (side note: Roger Deakins was nominated twice last year, and won neither, even though one of those nominations was for the eventual best picture winner, No Country For Old Men). Benjamin Button could pull this one out, I suppose, but the popular opinion sides greatly with the other two remaining choices. I suspect what it boils down to is that of all the things The Dark Knight will be remembered for, its photography is probably not high on the list. Slumdog, on the other hand, features a shoot from the hip, run ‘n gun kind of handicam style that works to great effect in the context of the film. Pick: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Costume Design

• Australia – Catherine Martin
• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Jacqueline West
• The Duchess – Michael O’Connor
• Milk – Danny Glicker
• Revolutionary Road – Albert Wolsky

Here’s your Victorian period piece category. Films with contemporary settings tend not to do well in this category, so Benjamin Button, Milk and Revolutionary Road are most likely out of the running. Australia was seen by approximately seven people and presumably disliked by six of them.² That pretty much means The Duchess is nearly a shoo in to take this one home. Pick: The Duchess

Best Documentary Feature

• Nerakhoon (The Betrayal)
• Encounters at the End of the World
• The Garden
• Man on Wire
• Trouble the Water

I’ve only seen Encounters at the End of the World and Man on Wire. I feel safe in assuring you that neither The Garden or Nerakhoon will take this one home and the same goes for Encounters. Trouble the Water is apparently very good, but I have a hard time suggesting you vote anything but the very crowd pleasing Man on Wire, which was easily one of my favorite films of the year. Pick: Man on Wire

Best Documentary Short

• The Conscience of Nhem En – Steven Okazaki
• The Final Inch
• Smile Pinki
• The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306

I have seen none of these. The Conscience of Nhem En is about the teenage photographer at a Cambodian prisoner during the dark days of the Khmer Rouge; The Final Inch concerns itself with the eradication of polio; Smile Pinki is about a poor Indian girl with a cleft lip; and The Witness is about the Reverand Samuel “Billy” Kyles’ recollections as he stood besides Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. on the balcony of the Lorraine Hotel on April 4, 1968. Trying best to intellectualize the nominees, I feel safe in eradicating the eradication of polio and I’m pretty confident that the atrocities of Pol Pot’s Cambodian rule will go home empty handed (The Killing Fields didn’t win in 1984, either). Smile Pinki could benefit from a tenuous association with Slumdog Millionaire (impoverished childern in India), but I figure the Academy’s probably suffering from Obama fever, much like the rest of the country, so the civil rights movement strikes me as the right topic to go with. Pick: The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306

Best Film Editing

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall
• The Dark Knight – Lee Smith
• Frost/Nixon – Mike Hill, Daniel P. Hanley
• Milk – Elliot Graham
• Slumdog Millionaire – Chris Dickens

In total contradiction to what I said in my commentary above on cinematography, I’d have to say Slumdog is the clear favorite. The Dark Knight could sneak in with an upset based on sheer massive popularity, but Slumdog makes surprisingly effective use of flashbacks throughout, an achievement largely the result of fantastic editing. Plus, you know, it’s Slumdog. Pick: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Live Action Short

• On the Line (Auf der Strecke)
• Manon On the Asphalt
• New Boy (Ireland)
• The Pig (Grisen)
• Toyland (Spielzeugland)

Ricky Gervais puts it best: “Make a Holocaust film, get an Oscar.” Toyland is the Holocaust film, and despite its very short running time, it takes some unexpected turns that are very effective. New Boy is just way too slight, On the Line is a little creepy and The Pig is just flat out goofy by its conclusion. Manon On the Asphalt is a really interesting flick about the titular character’s life as it flashes before her eyes at the moment of death. All in all, though Toyland was my favorite and it’s probably the best bet to win the statue. Pick: Toyland

Best Makeup

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Greg Cannom
• The Dark Knight – John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O’Sullivan
• Hellboy II: The Golden Army – Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz

Making young people look old tends to be a hallmark in this category and Benjamin Button does that to great effect. That said, The Dark Knight features probably the most iconic filmic image of 2008 in Heath Ledger’s Joker, a look achieved through the skilled application of makeup. Another Guillermo del Toro film, Pan’s Labyrinth, won this category a couple of years ago, but Hellboy II will not. Ultimately, this category feels like a coin flip between the other two, so I’m going to go with… Pick: The Dark Knight

Best Original Score

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Alexandre Desplat
• Defiance – James Newton Howard
• Milk – Danny Elfman
• Slumdog Millionaire – A. R. Rahman
• WALL-E – Thomas Newman

What in the world is Defiance doing here? That’s the only one of these nominees I haven’t seen, but I have think that Slumdog is the favorite based solely on the current cultural climate. Put another way: I don’t see the other film’s soundtracks showing up on any bestseller lists. A. R. Rahman’s score pulses and throbs throughout the film and does a great job of sounding both popular and filmic. If anything is going to upset it’ll be Danny Elfman’s more traditional score for Milk, but I wouldn’t count on it. Pick: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Original Song

• “Down to Earth” from WALL-E – Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman (music), Peter Gabriel (lyrics)
• “Jai Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire – A. R. Rahman (music), Gulzar (lyrics)
• “O Saya” from Slumdog Millionaire – A. R. Rahman and M.I.A.

Slumdog could always split the vote, leaving the unbelievably dull “Down to Earth” to take home the trophy. I don’t see that happening, however. I suspect that “Jai Ho” will win because it’s not only catchy, but prominently featured in one of the best parts of the movie: The closing credits dance number. This scene was so good, in fact, that when I saw Slumdog in the theatre, literally every single person who’d got up to leave sat back down in their chair. This song alone probably sold at least half of the Slumdog soundtracks out there on people’s iPods. Pick: “Jai Ho”

Best Sound Editing

• The Dark Knight – Richard King
• Iron Man – Frank Eulner and Christopher Boyes
• Slumdog Millionaire – Tom Sayers
• WALL-E – Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood
• Wanted – Wylie Stateman

I suppose someone could make an argument for just about any film here (except for perhaps the atrocity that was Wanted), but WALL-E strikes me as the best bet, especially given that the better part of the film shirks dialogue completely in favor of diagetic sounds. Pixar is no stranger to winning this category, either: The Incredibles beat out another massive comic book hit, Spider Man 2, in 2004. Pick: WALL-E

Best Sound Mixing

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Mark Weingarten
• The Dark Knight – Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo, Ed Novick
• Slumdog Millionaire – Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke, Resul Pookutty
• WALL-E – Tom Myers, Michael Semanick, Ben Burtt
• Wanted – Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño, Petr Forejt

Quite often, the same film wins both sound categories, which isn’t terribly surprising. That said, The Dark Knight’s gorgeous surround sound mix is pretty essential to and inseparable from the film’s constant action, which is a huge contrast to WALL-E’s relatively more subtle mix. Not one of my more confident picks, but I choose… Pick: The Dark Knight

Best Visual Effects

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton, Craig Barron
• The Dark Knight – Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber, Paul Franklin
• Iron Man – John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick, Shane Mahan

David Fincher’s films always make excellent use of visual effects, but the results tend to be more subtle than the big action movie types. The last time this category was won by a “subtle” film was when What Dreams May Come beat out Armageddon in 1998. Given that kind of track record, you’d be a fool to pick Benjamin Button, and while both Iron Man and The Dark Knight were massively popular, one of those was leaps and bounds more so. Pick: The Dark Knight

1. Sorry for that… [↩]
2. I actually liked Australia quite a bit more than I figured I would and Nicole Kidman’s costumes are really stunning. [↩]