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Who Will Win? My Predictions For the 84th Annual Academy Awards

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The Shorts

I failed this category miserably. I haven’t seen a one of them. As of right now, you can see 9 of the 10 live action and animated shorts via iTunes or OnDemand with most cable providers La Luna is Pixar’s entry in the animated category this year, but it won’t screen for audiences until June 22nd as a pre-show short in front of Brave.

Since I still need to make my picks, I’m just going to go with some guesswork here based on what I’ve read about each of the nominees. I’ll leave out my “should win” section here.

Documentary Short Subject

  • The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
  • God Is the Bigger Elvis
  • Incident in New Baghdad
  • Saving Face
  • The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Barber sounds like a slight take on the civil rights movement and the Bigger Elvis just sounds slight. I’m guessing Iraq War fatigue will keep New Baghdad out. That leaves Saving Face, about a doctor who returns to Pakistan to help reconstruct the faces of women who’ve been attacked by having acid thrown at them, and The Tsunami, about the aftermath of the disaster in Japan last year as locals prepare for cherry blossom season. They seem like the likeliest winners, so I’ll flip a coin and get:

Saving Face

Short Film (Animated)

  • Dimanche/Sunday
  • The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
  • La Luna
  • A Morning Stroll
  • Wild Life

None of these sound particularly interesting, with the exception of Fantastic Flying Books. It’s also got an awesome title, so let’s just get right to it and call it the winner.

The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

Short Film (Live Action)

  • Pentecost
  • Raju
  • The Shore
  • Time Freak
  • Tuba Atlantic

Raju and The Shore seem to be the front runners in this category. Raju regards a German couple who’ve gone to India to adopt a child, only to immediately lose the child. The Shore is about a couple of boyhood friends in Northern Ireland who’ve been estranged for 25 years because of The Troubles. It’s a tough call with little to go on, so I’m just going to say:

The Shore

The Technicals

Visual effects really need no explaination, but here’s a quick refresher on the difference between sound editing and sound mixing:

Sound in film is generally comprised of three elements: dialogue, effects and music. The sound editor is responsible for the middle of those. He selects the sound effects that will be used in the final mix to accurate reflect the images on screen. The final mix of those three elements? That’s the sound mixer.

These categories tend to be won by action heavy films, with one small exception: musicals (or music heavy films) have done well in the Sound Mixing category over the past decade, but that genre is absent from this year’s nominees.

Also worth noting is that while critically panned films often show up as nominees in these categories, they don’t usually win.

Note: I haven’t seen Transformers or Real Steel.

Sound Editing

  • Drive
  • The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
  • Hugo
  • Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon
  • War Horse

Films with a lot of “busy” action set pieces tend to do well in this category. Unfortunately, Drive doesn’t really fit that bill, though the sound effects are pretty amazing. That’s where my vote would go because it’s an amazing film that was undeservedly snubbed from every other category. Probably not how most voters will go.

War Horse

Sound Mixing

  • The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
  • Hugo
  • Moneyball
  • Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon
  • War Horse

Swapping out Drive for Moneyball, we’ve got basically the same list of nominees for mixing. In the past couple of years, the winner of one category went on to win the other. I don’t have a particularly strong opinion here for who I want to win, but I think we’ll get another double win for sound this year.

War Horse

Visual Effects

  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
  • Hugo
  • Real Steel
  • Rise of the Planet of the Apes
  • Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon

Leading up to the nominations, there was a lot of buzz about Andy Serkis getting an acting nomination for playing Caesar, the alpha chimp who will presumably go on to lead the apes to eventual victory over the humans. It’s a genuinely towering performance, but the process of acting with motion capture really isn’t commonly understood enough at this point by a wide enough audience to push Serkis into the acting nominations circle. As a sort of consolation, I have a feeling that’s where this category will go, and I’m okay with that.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

The Artists

Ah, the pretty things we see on screen at the movies! These are the people responsible for them, from the art direction to the costume design to the makeup. The director of photography rounds out this quartet since he’s the one that captures it all on film.

Note: I haven’t seen three of the costume design nominees: Anonymous, Jane Eyre and W.E.

Art Direction

  • The Artist
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
  • Hugo
  • Midnight in Paris
  • War Horse

Aka, the Tim Burton Prize. Alas, he didn’t direct any of these pictures. Period or fantasy tend to win this category year after year. This year, there’s one nominated film that is both of those things.

Hugo

Costume Design

  • Anonymous
  • The Artist
  • Hugo
  • Jane Eyre
  • W.E.

I can’t really make any choices here. Of the two I saw, neither particularly blew me away in temrs of costume design. The Artist could snag this for the sheer sentimentality of dressing everyone up in silent era Hollywood style. That said, period pieces tend to rule this category and it doesn’t get much more period than who I think will win.

Jane Eyre

Makeup

  • Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle, Albert Nobbs
  • Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
  • Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland, The Iron Lady

Not a lot to say here except that one of these films was more or less carried entirely by the makeup on screen. The Academy always seems to be impressed when they make people look old, too.

The Iron Lady

Cinematography

  • The Artist
  • The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
  • Hugo
  • The Tree of Life
  • War Horse

There’s really no question of who should win. Emmanuel Lubezki’s photographry in The Tree of Life is simply stunning. Words can’t begin to describe how beautifully shot every second of that film is. I’m pretty sure the Academy will vote the same way. The film was liked enough to get a Best Picture nod, though divisive enough that it won’t win that category. What everyone can agree on, however, is the cinematography.

The Tree of Life

The Musicians

Music (Original Score)

  • John Williams, The Adventures of Tintin
  • Ludovic Bource, The Artist
  • Howard Shore, Hugo
  • Alberto Iglesias, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
  • John Williams, War Horse

My hands down favorite here is Alberto Iglesias’ jazzy, moody score for Tinker Tailor. Alas, there’s no way it pulls out a win here, so I’ll just have to get over that. The likely winner will be Ludovic Bource’s score for The Artist. It’s a noble score and well composed, but I’m also left a little cold with the fact that the most powerful musical moment in the film is set to a piece from Bernard Hermann’s score for the Hitchcock film Vertigo. It bothers me a little that Bource would get the win here in light of that, but I don’t think the Academy will care.

Ludovic Bource

Music (Original Song)

  • “Man or Muppet” from The Muppets, Bret McKenzie
  • “Real in Rio” from Rio, Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown and Siedah Garrett

I have no opinion about this category. Let’s go Muppets.

“Man or Muppet

The Others

Documentary Feature

  • Hell and Back Again
  • If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
  • Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
  • Pina
  • Undefeated

I’ve seen Hell and Tree Falls and thought both were entirely average. It seems like the Academy left a lot of excellent documentaries out of the nominations this year. My guess is it will come down to Paradise Lost 3 (given that it’s the culmination of a really well loved series of documentaries about the Robin Hood Hill murders) and Undefeated, which plays somewhat like a real life Blind Side. Hollywood loves a good underdog story, so that’s where my guess goes.

Undefeated

Best Foreign Feature

  • Bullhead
  • Footnote
  • In Darkness
  • Monsieur Lazhar
  • A Separation

A Separation should run away with this category, but history tells us that the foreign film that seems like it will win quite often doesn’t. Think of Amelie losing to No Man’s Land, Pan’s Labyrinth losing to The Lives of Others and The White Ribbon losing to The Secret In Their Eyes. That’s not to detract from the films that ultimately do win (they’re quite often also very good), but it does make the category a tough one to predict. Buzz says that outside of A Separation, Monsieur Lazhar is the likely favorite, but I’ll go ahead and stick with my gut here and say:

A Separation

Best Animated Feature

  • A Cat in Paris
  • Chico & Rita
  • Kung Fu Panda 2
  • Puss in Boots
  • Rango

I haven’t seen a one of these, but smack between the populist kids movies and the artsy foreign affairs sits the likely winner.

Rango

The Storytellers

Best Original Screenplay

  • Michel Hazanivicius, The Artist
  • Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
  • Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
  • J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
  • Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

It’s been a long time since Woody Allen has made a film that was so widely beloved. There’s some strong stuff in this category (and I’m delighted to see A Separation show up with a nomination), but this year it’s Woody’s to lose.

Midnight in Paris

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants
  • John Logan, Hugo
  • George Clooney, Beau Willimon and Grant Heslov, The Ides of March
  • Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
  • Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Another strong set of nominees. I’d love to see Moneyball win this, giving Aaron Sorkin consecutive wins for adapting really uncinematic material. I don’t think it’ll happen. Instead, my least favorite nominee will probably take the win.

The Descendants

Film Editing

  • Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
  • Kevin Tent, The Descendants
  • Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
  • Thelma Schoonmaker, Hugo
  • Christopher Tellefsen, Moneyball

It’s often said that a movie is made in the editing room. Given the fact that The Artist is a silent film, the editing becomes even more important as the way to tell the film’s story. It’s a beloved movie and it will do really well tonight. Put your money on it.

The Artist

Best Director

  • Michel Hazanivicius, The Artist
  • Alexander Payne, The Descendants
  • Martin Scorsese, Hugo
  • Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
  • Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see Terrence Malick win this award. The Tree of Life is an absolute masterpiece that deserves recognition as such. Alas, The Artist train will roll on.

Michel Hazanivicius

The Players

Supporting Actress

  • Berenice Bejo, The Artist
  • Jessica Chastain, The Help
  • Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
  • Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
  • Octavia Spencer, The Help

This is a category that’s prone to surprises. Melissa McCarthy, while a popular choice, would still be a big surprise. It could happen! That’s not how I’d vote, though. It’s a really tough vote because the other four nominees are all really excellent and deserving, but I’d probably vote Bejo. She really won me over with a couple of key scenes and I found her effortless charming throughout. The Academy, however, will likely go with one of The Help.

Octavia Spencer

Supporting Actor

  • Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
  • Jonah Hill, Moneyball
  • Nick Nolte, Warrior
  • Christopher Plummer, Beginners
  • Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

The old guy category. The lifetime achievement category. Call it whatever you will, it’ll come down to Plummer or von Sydow. I loved the former a lot and I’m pretty positive the Academy did, too. Probably the closest to a sure thing we’ll see all night.

Christopher Plummer

Best Actress

  • Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
  • Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
  • Viola Davis, The Help
  • Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
  • Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

The second closest sure thing we’ll see all night, put your money down on Viola Davis. She turns in a huge performance, elevating mediocre material and making Aibileen Clark a character with tremendous depth. Meryl Streep could have stolen this, but unfortunately, The Iron Lady is simply a bad, bad movie. I’m going to agree with the Academy here.

Viola Davis

Best Actor

  • Demian Bichir, A Better Life
  • George Clooney, The Descendants
  • Jean Dujardin, The Artist
  • Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
  • Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Gary Oldman gives a tremendous performance by doing very little and I’d love to see him win. He deserves it and his work as the understated and inscrutable George Smiley would be a good way for the Academy to show their appreciation. Brad Pitt comes in a close second. Sadly, neither of them will win. It’s Artist time again and I can’t deny that Jean Dujardin deserves all the praise that’s been heaped on him. He was born to play this role and he’ll be honored justly.

Jean Dujardin

The Grand Prize

Best Picture

  • War Horse
  • The Artist
  • Moneyball
  • The Descendants
  • The Tree of Life
  • Midnight in Paris
  • The Help
  • Hugo
  • Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

You may have caught my praise of Tree of Life above. It deserves Best Picture so much that it literally pains me to not put it down on my prediction ballot. Alas, the favorite seems to be The Artist. It’s a safe bet on a fluffy feel good film. It’s neat that it’ll be the first silent film to win Best Picture since the very first Academy Awards ceremony, but neat doesn’t beat amazing. Life moves on, right?

The Artist

The Artist

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I guess I’m supposed to love The Artist. It’s a movie about movies. About silent movies and the transition to sound movies and how that destroyed the lives of the silent film era stars who refused to jump on board with the newfangled invention of talking pictures.

Oh yeah. The Artist is a silent film. But you probably already knew that.

Thing is: I didn’t love it. It’s fine. Cute, even. Jean Dujardin is handsome and charming and oh so expressive (an essential quality to making a silent performance work) as the movie star George Valentin who bucks the talkies by directing himself in one last silent film. That personal project bankrupts Valentin and his world crumbles around him.

Berenice Bejo plays Peppy Miller, an adorable actress whose star rises in the age of talkies as Valentin’s falls. Peppy gets her big break because of Valentin, however, and she never forgets that. She’s clearly in love with him, a fact she reveals in a Chaplinesque bit where she convincingly embraces herself with one arm through Valentin’s jacket. She’s one of the few people in the audience when Valentin’s last film opens, while next door her breakout movie debuts to a sell out crowd. Despite her success, she never forgets what Valentin did for her. She supports him from a distance as he spirals further and further into despair. Eventually, he hits rock bottom and she’s there to pick him up again. It’s all very jolly.

The Artist is certainly well made and there are really brilliant scenes interspersed throughout. A particular favorite is a sequence where Valentin’s just been informed of the advent of talkies. Up until that point, the film has played out in completely silent fashion, the only sound that of the (theoretical) orchestra playing along with the images. Valentin looks in the mirror and takes a drink of water. When he sets the glass down, it makes a diegetic sound, the first of the film. Valentin is surprised so he picks up the glass and puts it back down again. Another sound effect. Around him, everything starts to make noise, but when he speaks to himself in the mirror, he’s silent. It’s a wonderfully executed scene and my favorite in the film.

Unfortunately, nothing else really lives up to that moment. The ending eventually comes along and the final sequences inexplicably play to the sounds of Bernard Hermann’s glorious score from Vertigo. Beside the fact that it’s a beautiful piece of music, I can’t really figure out why it’s here. As the film comes to a conclusion with Valentin’s redemption at the hands of Peppy Miller’s persistence, the inevitable happens: silence becomes sound and the transition is complete. Talkies are the new norm and that age of the silent film artist vanishes forever as the credits roll.

Here’s a fun fact: The Artist is the first silent film to be nominated for Best Picture since 1928. That year, The Patriot was nominated in the second annual Academy Awards ceremony. If the Artist wins Best Picture, it’ll only be the second film to do so. The first was Wings in 1927 at the first Academy Awards ceremony.

OMG The Oscars Are Coming!

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The nominees are out. That means it’s time to start reviewing all the movies I’ve missed in 2011 and making a plan to see as many of the nominated films as I can before the winners are announced on February 26th.

That’s not a lot of time. I get myself into this mess every year (minus 2010, which I sort of took off). You can see my similar lists from 2009. I kept my lists of movies to see private the past couple of years, but they’re back!

It’s admittedly silly, but my goal is to see as many nominated films as I can. Not just the big nominees… ALL of them. The foreign films tend to be tough to pick up (oftentimes they don’t appear in theaters until after the awards are given) and documentary shorts tend to never be seen (at least the animated and live action shorts usually find release on iTunes and in theaters through the efforts of Shorts International. Then there’s the movies I simply do NOT want to see. (I’m looking at you, Transformers, you piece of shit!)

Without further ado, here are the 61 nominated films. The ones I’ve seen as of today have been struck through:

  1. The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
  2. Albert Nobbs
  3. Anonymous (DVD on 2/7)
  4. The Artist
  5. The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement (short)
  6. Beginners (DVD)
  7. A Better Life (DVD)
  8. Bridesmaids (DVD)
  9. Bullhead
  10. A Cat in Paris
  11. Chico and Rita
  12. The Descendants
  13. Dimanche / Sunday (short)
  14. Drive (DVD)
  15. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
  16. The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr Morris Lessmore (short) (Free on iTunes!)
  17. Footnote
  18. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
  19. God is the Bigger Elvis (short)
  20. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 (DVD)
  21. Hell and Back Again (Streaming on Netflix)
  22. The Help (DVD)
  23. Hugo
  24. Ides of March (DVD)
  25. If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front (Streaming on Netflix)
  26. Incident in New Baghdad (short)
  27. In Darkness
  28. The Iron Lady
  29. Jane Eyre (DVD)
  30. Kung Fu Panda 2 (DVD)
  31. La Luna (short)
  32. Margin Call (DVD)
  33. Midnight in Paris (DVD)
  34. Moneyball (DVD)
  35. Monsieur Lazhar
  36. A Morning Stroll (short)
  37. The Muppets
  38. My Week With Marilyn
  39. Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
  40. Pentecost (short)
  41. Pina
  42. Puss in Boots (DVD on 2/24)
  43. Raju (short)
  44. Rango (DVD)
  45. Real Steel (DVD)
  46. Rio (DVD)
  47. Rise of the Planet of the Apes (DVD)
  48. Saving Face (short)
  49. A Separation
  50. The Shore (short)
  51. Time Freak (short)
  52. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
  53. Transformers: Dark of the Moon (DVD)
  54. The Tree of Life (DVD)
  55. The Tsumani and the Cherry Blossom (short)
  56. Tuba Atlantic (short)
  57. Undefeated
  58. W.E.
  59. War Horse
  60. Warrior (DVD)
  61. Wild Life (short)

For those of you counting, this means I’ve only seen *seven* of the nominated films. In 2009, I had 42 films to catch and last year it was in the upper forties. Now I’ve got one month to catch 54 flicks.

Yeah, that’s not gonna happen. But I’ll do my best to get as close as possible!

Wish me luck.

Updated 1/30: Marked The Help, The Artist, The Descendants and Rise of the Planet of the Apes as seen. Down to 50! Also added links to Netflix or iTunes for films you can watch at home, along with some notes about streaming or DVD availability.

Updated 2/3: Since the last update, I’ve seen two of the documentaries (Hell and Back Again and If A Tree Falls, the two available on Netflix streaming), as well as Warrior and A Separation. That brings me down to a total of 46 flicks left to see! My weekend plans include Hugo and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close for sure. Might also suck it up and go get War Horse out of the way. Speaking of which, I can’t think of the last time there was a Best Picture nominee I wanted to see less than War Horse. I really hope it’s not actually as torturous as it feels like it will be.

Go Giants!

Updated 2/10: An amazing victory for the Giants in the Super Bowl seems to have foreshadowed a slowed pace in movie watching this past week. Only saw 5 more films: A Better Life (awesome), Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (terrible), Hugo (average), Ides of March (also awesome) and My Week With Marilyn (underwhelming), which brings me down to one less than the Meaning of Life movies to see (i.e. 41).

And Winners Will Be: My Oscar Picks for 2011

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It’s Oscar time! I’d hoped to get my picks posted up earlier, but I’ve only just finished catching up with all the major nominees this afternoon, so you’ll have to settle for some hastily written commentary along with my picks for who will win the award for each category, along with where my vote would have gone if I’d had one.

Best Picture

  • ‘Black Swan’
  • ‘The Fighter’
  • ‘Inception’
  • ‘The Kids Are All Right’
  • ‘The King’s Speech’
  • ’127 Hours’
  • ‘The Social Network’
  • ‘Toy Story 3′
  • ‘True Grit’
  • ‘Winter’s Bone’

Best picture will likely come down to ‘The Social Network’ and ‘The King’s Speech’. If the Oscars had taken place a few months ago, then ‘The Social Network’ would have probably won this category. Nowadays it seems as if the world has taken to revolving around all things related to ‘The King’s Speech’, so I’d pick it without question.

Will: ‘The King’s Speech’

Should: ‘The Fighter’

Best Director

  • Darren Aronofsky – ‘Black Swan’
  • David O. Russell – ‘The Fighter’
  • Tom Hooper – ‘The King’s Speech’
  • David Fincher – ‘The Social Network’
  • Joel and Ethan Coen – ‘True Grit’

A lot of first time nominees in the director category this year. Since Picture/Director splits are very rare in Oscar history, the safe bet is probably with Tom Hooper. But as a new name to these proceedings, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Director award go to David Fincher. He’s clearly deserving for the consistently great films he’s put out and it’s without question that his work on ‘The Social Network’ was remarkable.

Will: David Fincher

Should: David Fincher

Best Actress

  • Annette Bening – ‘The Kids Are All Right’
  • Nicole Kidman – ‘Rabbit Hole’
  • Jennifer Lawrence – ‘Winter’s Bone’
  • Natalie Portman – ‘Black Swan’
  • Michelle Williams – ‘Blue Valentine’

The only nominee on this list that leaves me a little cold is Natalie Portman. That said, she’s clearly a favorite to win it after taking home a plethora of early season awards. I certainly can’t deny the incredible amounts of preparation Ms. Portman put into her role as a ballet dancer, but her on screen work left me largely unimpressed. The next most likely winner is Annette Bening; the remaining nominees either came from films too small and unseen (Kidman and Williams), and Jennifer Lawrence is just far too young — in fact, the second youngest Best Actress nominee in the history of the awards.

Will: Natalie Portman

Should: Michelle Williams

Best Actor

  • Javier Bardem – ‘Biutiful’
  • Jeff Bridges – ‘True Grit’
  • Jesse Eisenberg – ‘The Social Network’
  • Colin Firth – ‘The King’s Speech’
  • James Franco – ’127 Hours’

An absolute murderer’s row of performances. In Bardem’s case, I absolutely hated the film, so it’s tough for me to be objective about the quality of his performance. I’d have happily seen any number of actors slotted into this category instead: Aaron Eckhart in ‘Rabbit Hole’ and Ryan Gosling in ‘Blue Valentine’ both come immediately to mind. Either way, it won’t matter because there’s no surer winner this year than Colin Firth.

Will: Colin Firth

Should: Colin Firth

Best Supporting Actress

  • Amy Adams – ‘The Fighter’
  • Helena Bonham Carter – ‘The King’s Speech’
  • Melissa Leo – ‘The Fighter’
  • Hailee Steinfeld – ‘True Grit’
  • Jacki Weaver – ‘Animal Kingdom’

Another excellent category. All five performances are absolutely stellar. The early favorite has been Melissa Leo, but she also took out her own promotional “for your consideration” ads, an action that Alice Ward would have admired, but which is largely frowned upon by the Academy voters. Amy Adams was also terrific in the same film, which could lead to vote splitting, leaving the award to be swept up by one of the other very deserving nominees. There are simply no sure things in this category — definitely the toughest to pick tonight!

Will: Melissa Leo

Should: Jacki Weaver

Best Supporting Actor

  • Christian Bale – ‘The Fighter’
  • John Hawkes – ‘Winter’s Bone’
  • Jeremy Renner – ‘The Town’
  • Mark Ruffalo – ‘The Kids Are All Right’
  • Geoffrey Rush – ‘The King’s Speech’

A very strong batch of contenders that will come down to Christian Bale and Geoffrey Rush. I suspect the sheer domination that Colin Firth held over ‘The King’s Speec’ will ultimately edge voters away from Mr. Rush.

Will: Christian Bale

Should: Christian Bale

Best Animated Feature Film

  • ‘How to Train Your Dragon’
  • ‘Illusionist’
  • ‘Toy Story 3′

If you’re not voting for ‘Toy Story 3′ then you’re crazy.

Will: ‘Toy Story 3′

Should: ‘Toy Story 3′

Best Foreign Language Film

  • ‘Biutiful’
  • ‘Dogtooth’
  • ‘In a Better World’
  • ‘Incendies’
  • ‘Outside the law’

I’ve only seen ‘Biutiful’ and ‘Dogtooth’. The former was a terrible, bleak opus of suffering; a despicable film. ‘Dogtooth,’ on the other hand, was very quirky, small and fascinating. I’m going to have to go with what the critics are saying here and pick the Danish film, ‘In a Better World’.

Will: ‘In a Better World’

Should: ‘Dogtooth’

Best Original Screenplay

  • Mike Leigh – ‘Another Year’
  • Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson – ‘The Fighter’
  • Christopher Nolan – ‘Inception’
  • Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg – ‘The Kids Are All Right’
  • David Seidler – ‘The King’s Speech’

The story of how David Seidler came to write ‘The King’s Speech’ is touching enough to be worthy of its own film (‘The Screenwriter’s Speech’?). Great nominees all around, but you know how this plays out…

Will: ‘The King’s Speech’

Should: ‘The Fighter’

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy – ’127 Hours’
  • Aaron Sorkin – ‘The Social Network’
  • John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton & Lee Unkrich – ‘Toy Story 3′
  • Joel Coen & Ethan Coen – ‘True Grit’
  • Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini – ‘Winter’s Bone’

Isn’t it about time Aaron Sorkin won an Oscar? He wasn’t even nominated for ‘A Few Good Men’!

Will: ‘The Social Network’

Should: ‘The Social Network’

Best Documentary Feature

  • ‘Exit Through the Gift Shop’
  • ‘Gasland’
  • ‘Inside Job’
  • ‘Restrepo’
  • ‘Waste Land’

I’ve only seen ‘Exit Through the Gift Shop’ and ‘Restrepo’. Both films were excellent, though ‘Exit’ was one of my absolute films of the year. The critics seem to think ‘Inside Job”s take on the recent financial crisis will win it all. I can’t really disagree at this point, but I still think Banksy’s opus to street art and commercialism will prevail. You should probably feel free to disagree with me.

Will: ‘Exit Through the Gift Shop’

Should: ‘Exit Through the Gift Shop’

Best Original Song

  • ‘Coming Home’ from ‘Country Strong’
  • ‘I See the Light’ from ‘Tangled’
  • ‘If I Rise’ from ’127 Hours’
  • ‘We Belong Together’ from ‘Toy Story 3′

A really boring category this year. I’d play it safe and go with the Randy Newman tune from ‘Toy Story 3′.

Will: ‘Toy Story 3′

Should: Who cares?

Best Original Score

  • ‘How to Train Your Dragon’ – John Powell
  • ‘Inception’ – Hans Zimmer
  • ‘The King’s Speech’ – Alexandre Desplat
  • ’127 Hours’ – A.R. Rahman
  • ‘The Social Network’ – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

Honestly, a bit of a weak category this year. The only score here that jumps out at me is Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s work on ‘The Social Network’. In many ways, that film wouldn’t have worked nearly as well without its pulsing, sinewy electronic score. That’s pretty high praise for a score, so…

Will: ‘The Social Network’

Should: ‘The Social Network’

Best Film Editing

  • ‘Black Swan’
  • ‘The Fighter’
  • ‘The King’s Speech’
  • ’127 Hours’
  • ‘The Social Network’

Another excellent group of nominees. ‘The Fighter’ is my favorite film of the bunch and those boxing matches were cut together beautifully, not to mention navigating between the documentary in the film and the film itself. Still, it’s tough to look away from ‘The King’s Speech’ and ‘The Social Network’ this year. I’d go with the latter.

Will: ‘The Social Network’

Should: ‘The Fighter’

Best Visual Effects

  • ‘Alice in Wonderland’
  • ‘Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1′
  • ‘Hereafter’
  • ‘Inception’
  • ‘Iron Man 2′

Inception, Inception, Inception. I mean, they folded Paris up like a taco and made it look real. I’m sold.

Will: ‘Inception’

Should: ‘Inception’

Best Cinematography

  • ‘Black Swan’
  • ‘Inception’
  • ‘The King’s Speech’
  • ‘The Social Network’
  • ‘True Grit’

Roger Deakins, who filmed ‘True Grit’, is an unquestionably remarkable cinematographer. He’s been nominated countless times (okay, I counted; this one is nomination #9) and has yet to win. There’s some aspects of his filming of ‘True Grit’ I take some issue with, but it’s still pretty remarkable stuff. Wally Pfister of ‘Inception’ has four previous nominations (also no wins), but the remaining DP’s are debutantes to this party. In the grand scheme of things that may not count for much, but I think it’s time for Deakins to take an award home.

Will: ‘True Grit’

Should: ‘Inception’

Best Sound Mixing

  • ‘Inception’
  • ‘The King’s Speech’
  • ‘Salt’
  • ‘The Social Network’
  • ‘True Grit’

This category goes almost exclusively to action movies or music-heavy movies, be it musicals or biopics about musicians. Watch the trend continue.

Will: ‘Inception’

Should: ‘Inception’

Best Sound Editing

  • ‘Inception’
  • ‘Toy Story 3′
  • ‘Tron: Legacy’
  • ‘True Grit’
  • ‘Unstoppable’

Action reigns supreme here, too. Then again, Pixar took this category home for ‘The Incredibles’ back in 2004, so if you’re looking for an upset, ‘Toy Story 3′ is probably your best chance. Stick to the safe bet.

Will: ‘Inception’

Should: ‘Inception’

Best Costume Design

  • ‘Alice in Wonderland’
  • ‘I Am Love’
  • ‘The King’s Speech’
  • ‘The Tempest’
  • ‘True Grit’

Period pieces rule the Costume Design category, which pretty much makes ‘The King’s Speech’ a given.

Will: ‘The King’s Speech’

Should: ‘The King’s Speech’

Best Art Direction

  • ‘Alice in Wonderland’
  • ‘Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I’
  • ‘Inception’
  • ‘The King’s Speech’
  • ‘True Grit’

This is a tough one to call. The award tends to go with the most visually striking film, so that would rule out ‘The King’s Speech’, which is not something you should ever do with this year’s Oscars. There’s really no safe bet here, so flip a coin between ‘Inception’ and ‘The King’s Speech’. Mine landed on…

Will: ‘Inception’

Should: ‘Inception’

Best Makeup

  • ‘Barney’s Version’
  • ‘The Way Back’
  • ‘The Wolfman’

No stand out choices here; the movies were either critically panned or completely unseen. Not a good year for makeup! Given that this award was largely created to honor Rick Baker’s work on ‘An American Werewolf in London’ in 1981, it’s a safe bet that his return to werewolves in ‘The Wolfman’ will bring home the prize.

Will: ‘The Wolfman’

Should: Who cares?

Best Short Film (Live Action)

  • ‘The Confession’ – Tanel Toom
  • ‘The Crush’ – Michael Creagh
  • ‘God of Love’ – Luke Matheny
  • ‘Na Wewe’ – Ivan Goldschmidt
  • ‘Wish 143′ – Ian Barnes & Samantha Waite

Four of these five films are sitting, unwatched, on my iPad as I write. Can’t really give you an opinion, so stick to subject matter guessing. ‘Na Wewe’ is about the Rwandan genocide. Sounds like a winner to me!

Will: ‘Na Wewe’

Should: TBD

Best Documentary (Short Subject)

  • ‘Killing in the Name’
  • ‘Poster Girl’
  • ‘Strangers No More’
  • ‘Sun Comes Up’
  • ‘The Warriors of Qiugang’

I wouldn’t even know where to go about finding these films to watch them. Pick your favorite title.

Will: ‘Strangers No More’

Should: TBD

Best Short Film (Animated)

  • ‘Day & Night’ – Teddy Newton
  • ‘The Gruffalo’ – Jakob Schuh & Max Lang
  • ‘Let’s Pollute’ – Geefwee Boedoe
  • ‘The Lost Thing’ – Shaun Tan & Andrew Ruhemann
  • ‘Madagascar, carnet de voyage’ – Bastien Duboi

With the exception of ‘The Gruffalo’, I have seen these! None of them really impressed, so I’m not sure to tell you. The critics seem to like ‘The Gruffalo”s chances, so you could feel pretty safe putting that one down. One might think the fact that Pixar made ‘Day & Night’ makes a sure thing, but you’d be surprised how rarely Pixar wins this category. Pixar hasn’t won the animated short category since 2001, despite a handful of nominations. Still, it’s hard to turn your back on Pixar and of the ones I saw, ‘Day & Night’ was by far my favorite, so what the hell…

Will: ‘Day & Night’

Should: ‘Day & Night’