It’s Oscar time! I’d hoped to get my picks posted up earlier, but I’ve only just finished catching up with all the major nominees this afternoon, so you’ll have to settle for some hastily written commentary along with my picks for who will win the award for each category, along with where my vote would have gone if I’d had one.
Best Picture
- ‘Black Swan’
- ‘The Fighter’
- ‘Inception’
- ‘The Kids Are All Right’
- ‘The King’s Speech’
- ’127 Hours’
- ‘The Social Network’
- ‘Toy Story 3′
- ‘True Grit’
- ‘Winter’s Bone’
Best picture will likely come down to ‘The Social Network’ and ‘The King’s Speech’. If the Oscars had taken place a few months ago, then ‘The Social Network’ would have probably won this category. Nowadays it seems as if the world has taken to revolving around all things related to ‘The King’s Speech’, so I’d pick it without question.
Will: ‘The King’s Speech’
Should: ‘The Fighter’
Best Director
- Darren Aronofsky – ‘Black Swan’
- David O. Russell – ‘The Fighter’
- Tom Hooper – ‘The King’s Speech’
- David Fincher – ‘The Social Network’
- Joel and Ethan Coen – ‘True Grit’
A lot of first time nominees in the director category this year. Since Picture/Director splits are very rare in Oscar history, the safe bet is probably with Tom Hooper. But as a new name to these proceedings, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Director award go to David Fincher. He’s clearly deserving for the consistently great films he’s put out and it’s without question that his work on ‘The Social Network’ was remarkable.
Will: David Fincher
Should: David Fincher
Best Actress
- Annette Bening – ‘The Kids Are All Right’
- Nicole Kidman – ‘Rabbit Hole’
- Jennifer Lawrence – ‘Winter’s Bone’
- Natalie Portman – ‘Black Swan’
- Michelle Williams – ‘Blue Valentine’
The only nominee on this list that leaves me a little cold is Natalie Portman. That said, she’s clearly a favorite to win it after taking home a plethora of early season awards. I certainly can’t deny the incredible amounts of preparation Ms. Portman put into her role as a ballet dancer, but her on screen work left me largely unimpressed. The next most likely winner is Annette Bening; the remaining nominees either came from films too small and unseen (Kidman and Williams), and Jennifer Lawrence is just far too young — in fact, the second youngest Best Actress nominee in the history of the awards.
Will: Natalie Portman
Should: Michelle Williams
Best Actor
- Javier Bardem – ‘Biutiful’
- Jeff Bridges – ‘True Grit’
- Jesse Eisenberg – ‘The Social Network’
- Colin Firth – ‘The King’s Speech’
- James Franco – ’127 Hours’
An absolute murderer’s row of performances. In Bardem’s case, I absolutely hated the film, so it’s tough for me to be objective about the quality of his performance. I’d have happily seen any number of actors slotted into this category instead: Aaron Eckhart in ‘Rabbit Hole’ and Ryan Gosling in ‘Blue Valentine’ both come immediately to mind. Either way, it won’t matter because there’s no surer winner this year than Colin Firth.
Will: Colin Firth
Should: Colin Firth
Best Supporting Actress
- Amy Adams – ‘The Fighter’
- Helena Bonham Carter – ‘The King’s Speech’
- Melissa Leo – ‘The Fighter’
- Hailee Steinfeld – ‘True Grit’
- Jacki Weaver – ‘Animal Kingdom’
Another excellent category. All five performances are absolutely stellar. The early favorite has been Melissa Leo, but she also took out her own promotional “for your consideration” ads, an action that Alice Ward would have admired, but which is largely frowned upon by the Academy voters. Amy Adams was also terrific in the same film, which could lead to vote splitting, leaving the award to be swept up by one of the other very deserving nominees. There are simply no sure things in this category — definitely the toughest to pick tonight!
Will: Melissa Leo
Should: Jacki Weaver
Best Supporting Actor
- Christian Bale – ‘The Fighter’
- John Hawkes – ‘Winter’s Bone’
- Jeremy Renner – ‘The Town’
- Mark Ruffalo – ‘The Kids Are All Right’
- Geoffrey Rush – ‘The King’s Speech’
A very strong batch of contenders that will come down to Christian Bale and Geoffrey Rush. I suspect the sheer domination that Colin Firth held over ‘The King’s Speec’ will ultimately edge voters away from Mr. Rush.
Will: Christian Bale
Should: Christian Bale
Best Animated Feature Film
- ‘How to Train Your Dragon’
- ‘Illusionist’
- ‘Toy Story 3′
If you’re not voting for ‘Toy Story 3′ then you’re crazy.
Will: ‘Toy Story 3′
Should: ‘Toy Story 3′
Best Foreign Language Film
- ‘Biutiful’
- ‘Dogtooth’
- ‘In a Better World’
- ‘Incendies’
- ‘Outside the law’
I’ve only seen ‘Biutiful’ and ‘Dogtooth’. The former was a terrible, bleak opus of suffering; a despicable film. ‘Dogtooth,’ on the other hand, was very quirky, small and fascinating. I’m going to have to go with what the critics are saying here and pick the Danish film, ‘In a Better World’.
Will: ‘In a Better World’
Should: ‘Dogtooth’
Best Original Screenplay
- Mike Leigh – ‘Another Year’
- Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson – ‘The Fighter’
- Christopher Nolan – ‘Inception’
- Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg – ‘The Kids Are All Right’
- David Seidler – ‘The King’s Speech’
The story of how David Seidler came to write ‘The King’s Speech’ is touching enough to be worthy of its own film (‘The Screenwriter’s Speech’?). Great nominees all around, but you know how this plays out…
Will: ‘The King’s Speech’
Should: ‘The Fighter’
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy – ’127 Hours’
- Aaron Sorkin – ‘The Social Network’
- John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton & Lee Unkrich – ‘Toy Story 3′
- Joel Coen & Ethan Coen – ‘True Grit’
- Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini – ‘Winter’s Bone’
Isn’t it about time Aaron Sorkin won an Oscar? He wasn’t even nominated for ‘A Few Good Men’!
Will: ‘The Social Network’
Should: ‘The Social Network’
Best Documentary Feature
- ‘Exit Through the Gift Shop’
- ‘Gasland’
- ‘Inside Job’
- ‘Restrepo’
- ‘Waste Land’
I’ve only seen ‘Exit Through the Gift Shop’ and ‘Restrepo’. Both films were excellent, though ‘Exit’ was one of my absolute films of the year. The critics seem to think ‘Inside Job”s take on the recent financial crisis will win it all. I can’t really disagree at this point, but I still think Banksy’s opus to street art and commercialism will prevail. You should probably feel free to disagree with me.
Will: ‘Exit Through the Gift Shop’
Should: ‘Exit Through the Gift Shop’
Best Original Song
- ‘Coming Home’ from ‘Country Strong’
- ‘I See the Light’ from ‘Tangled’
- ‘If I Rise’ from ’127 Hours’
- ‘We Belong Together’ from ‘Toy Story 3′
A really boring category this year. I’d play it safe and go with the Randy Newman tune from ‘Toy Story 3′.
Will: ‘Toy Story 3′
Should: Who cares?
Best Original Score
- ‘How to Train Your Dragon’ – John Powell
- ‘Inception’ – Hans Zimmer
- ‘The King’s Speech’ – Alexandre Desplat
- ’127 Hours’ – A.R. Rahman
- ‘The Social Network’ – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Honestly, a bit of a weak category this year. The only score here that jumps out at me is Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s work on ‘The Social Network’. In many ways, that film wouldn’t have worked nearly as well without its pulsing, sinewy electronic score. That’s pretty high praise for a score, so…
Will: ‘The Social Network’
Should: ‘The Social Network’
Best Film Editing
- ‘Black Swan’
- ‘The Fighter’
- ‘The King’s Speech’
- ’127 Hours’
- ‘The Social Network’
Another excellent group of nominees. ‘The Fighter’ is my favorite film of the bunch and those boxing matches were cut together beautifully, not to mention navigating between the documentary in the film and the film itself. Still, it’s tough to look away from ‘The King’s Speech’ and ‘The Social Network’ this year. I’d go with the latter.
Will: ‘The Social Network’
Should: ‘The Fighter’
Best Visual Effects
- ‘Alice in Wonderland’
- ‘Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1′
- ‘Hereafter’
- ‘Inception’
- ‘Iron Man 2′
Inception, Inception, Inception. I mean, they folded Paris up like a taco and made it look real. I’m sold.
Will: ‘Inception’
Should: ‘Inception’
Best Cinematography
- ‘Black Swan’
- ‘Inception’
- ‘The King’s Speech’
- ‘The Social Network’
- ‘True Grit’
Roger Deakins, who filmed ‘True Grit’, is an unquestionably remarkable cinematographer. He’s been nominated countless times (okay, I counted; this one is nomination #9) and has yet to win. There’s some aspects of his filming of ‘True Grit’ I take some issue with, but it’s still pretty remarkable stuff. Wally Pfister of ‘Inception’ has four previous nominations (also no wins), but the remaining DP’s are debutantes to this party. In the grand scheme of things that may not count for much, but I think it’s time for Deakins to take an award home.
Will: ‘True Grit’
Should: ‘Inception’
Best Sound Mixing
- ‘Inception’
- ‘The King’s Speech’
- ‘Salt’
- ‘The Social Network’
- ‘True Grit’
This category goes almost exclusively to action movies or music-heavy movies, be it musicals or biopics about musicians. Watch the trend continue.
Will: ‘Inception’
Should: ‘Inception’
Best Sound Editing
- ‘Inception’
- ‘Toy Story 3′
- ‘Tron: Legacy’
- ‘True Grit’
- ‘Unstoppable’
Action reigns supreme here, too. Then again, Pixar took this category home for ‘The Incredibles’ back in 2004, so if you’re looking for an upset, ‘Toy Story 3′ is probably your best chance. Stick to the safe bet.
Will: ‘Inception’
Should: ‘Inception’
Best Costume Design
- ‘Alice in Wonderland’
- ‘I Am Love’
- ‘The King’s Speech’
- ‘The Tempest’
- ‘True Grit’
Period pieces rule the Costume Design category, which pretty much makes ‘The King’s Speech’ a given.
Will: ‘The King’s Speech’
Should: ‘The King’s Speech’
Best Art Direction
- ‘Alice in Wonderland’
- ‘Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I’
- ‘Inception’
- ‘The King’s Speech’
- ‘True Grit’
This is a tough one to call. The award tends to go with the most visually striking film, so that would rule out ‘The King’s Speech’, which is not something you should ever do with this year’s Oscars. There’s really no safe bet here, so flip a coin between ‘Inception’ and ‘The King’s Speech’. Mine landed on…
Will: ‘Inception’
Should: ‘Inception’
Best Makeup
- ‘Barney’s Version’
- ‘The Way Back’
- ‘The Wolfman’
No stand out choices here; the movies were either critically panned or completely unseen. Not a good year for makeup! Given that this award was largely created to honor Rick Baker’s work on ‘An American Werewolf in London’ in 1981, it’s a safe bet that his return to werewolves in ‘The Wolfman’ will bring home the prize.
Will: ‘The Wolfman’
Should: Who cares?
Best Short Film (Live Action)
- ‘The Confession’ – Tanel Toom
- ‘The Crush’ – Michael Creagh
- ‘God of Love’ – Luke Matheny
- ‘Na Wewe’ – Ivan Goldschmidt
- ‘Wish 143′ – Ian Barnes & Samantha Waite
Four of these five films are sitting, unwatched, on my iPad as I write. Can’t really give you an opinion, so stick to subject matter guessing. ‘Na Wewe’ is about the Rwandan genocide. Sounds like a winner to me!
Will: ‘Na Wewe’
Should: TBD
Best Documentary (Short Subject)
- ‘Killing in the Name’
- ‘Poster Girl’
- ‘Strangers No More’
- ‘Sun Comes Up’
- ‘The Warriors of Qiugang’
I wouldn’t even know where to go about finding these films to watch them. Pick your favorite title.
Will: ‘Strangers No More’
Should: TBD
Best Short Film (Animated)
- ‘Day & Night’ – Teddy Newton
- ‘The Gruffalo’ – Jakob Schuh & Max Lang
- ‘Let’s Pollute’ – Geefwee Boedoe
- ‘The Lost Thing’ – Shaun Tan & Andrew Ruhemann
- ‘Madagascar, carnet de voyage’ – Bastien Duboi
With the exception of ‘The Gruffalo’, I have seen these! None of them really impressed, so I’m not sure to tell you. The critics seem to like ‘The Gruffalo”s chances, so you could feel pretty safe putting that one down. One might think the fact that Pixar made ‘Day & Night’ makes a sure thing, but you’d be surprised how rarely Pixar wins this category. Pixar hasn’t won the animated short category since 2001, despite a handful of nominations. Still, it’s hard to turn your back on Pixar and of the ones I saw, ‘Day & Night’ was by far my favorite, so what the hell…
Will: ‘Day & Night’
Should: ‘Day & Night’