The Shorts

I failed this category miserably. I haven’t seen a one of them. As of right now, you can see 9 of the 10 live action and animated shorts via iTunes or OnDemand with most cable providers La Luna is Pixar’s entry in the animated category this year, but it won’t screen for audiences until June 22nd as a pre-show short in front of Brave.

Since I still need to make my picks, I’m just going to go with some guesswork here based on what I’ve read about each of the nominees. I’ll leave out my “should win” section here.

Documentary Short Subject

The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement
God Is the Bigger Elvis
Incident in New Baghdad
Saving Face
The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Barber sounds like a slight take on the civil rights movement and the Bigger Elvis just sounds slight. I’m guessing Iraq War fatigue will keep New Baghdad out. That leaves Saving Face, about a doctor who returns to Pakistan to help reconstruct the faces of women who’ve been attacked by having acid thrown at them, and The Tsunami, about the aftermath of the disaster in Japan last year as locals prepare for cherry blossom season. They seem like the likeliest winners, so I’ll flip a coin and get:

Saving Face

Short Film (Animated)

Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life

None of these sound particularly interesting, with the exception of Fantastic Flying Books. It’s also got an awesome title, so let’s just get right to it and call it the winner.

The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

Short Film (Live Action)

Pentecost
Raju
The Shore
Time Freak
Tuba Atlantic

Raju and The Shore seem to be the front runners in this category. Raju regards a German couple who’ve gone to India to adopt a child, only to immediately lose the child. The Shore is about a couple of boyhood friends in Northern Ireland who’ve been estranged for 25 years because of The Troubles. It’s a tough call with little to go on, so I’m just going to say:

The Shore

The Technicals

Visual effects really need no explaination, but here’s a quick refresher on the difference between sound editing and sound mixing:

Sound in film is generally comprised of three elements: dialogue, effects and music. The sound editor is responsible for the middle of those. He selects the sound effects that will be used in the final mix to accurate reflect the images on screen. The final mix of those three elements? That’s the sound mixer.

These categories tend to be won by action heavy films, with one small exception: musicals (or music heavy films) have done well in the Sound Mixing category over the past decade, but that genre is absent from this year’s nominees.

Also worth noting is that while critically panned films often show up as nominees in these categories, they don’t usually win.

Note: I haven’t seen Transformers or Real Steel.

Sound Editing

Drive
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon
War Horse

Films with a lot of “busy” action set pieces tend to do well in this category. Unfortunately, Drive doesn’t really fit that bill, though the sound effects are pretty amazing. That’s where my vote would go because it’s an amazing film that was undeservedly snubbed from every other category. Probably not how most voters will go.

War Horse

Sound Mixing

The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon
War Horse

Swapping out Drive for Moneyball, we’ve got basically the same list of nominees for mixing. In the past couple of years, the winner of one category went on to win the other. I don’t have a particularly strong opinion here for who I want to win, but I think we’ll get another double win for sound this year.

War Horse

Visual Effects

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon

Leading up to the nominations, there was a lot of buzz about Andy Serkis getting an acting nomination for playing Caesar, the alpha chimp who will presumably go on to lead the apes to eventual victory over the humans. It’s a genuinely towering performance, but the process of acting with motion capture really isn’t commonly understood enough at this point by a wide enough audience to push Serkis into the acting nominations circle. As a sort of consolation, I have a feeling that’s where this category will go, and I’m okay with that.

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

The Artists

Ah, the pretty things we see on screen at the movies! These are the people responsible for them, from the art direction to the costume design to the makeup. The director of photography rounds out this quartet since he’s the one that captures it all on film.

Note: I haven’t seen three of the costume design nominees: Anonymous, Jane Eyre and W.E.

Art Direction

The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

Aka, the Tim Burton Prize. Alas, he didn’t direct any of these pictures. Period or fantasy tend to win this category year after year. This year, there’s one nominated film that is both of those things.

Hugo

Costume Design

Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

I can’t really make any choices here. Of the two I saw, neither particularly blew me away in temrs of costume design. The Artist could snag this for the sheer sentimentality of dressing everyone up in silent era Hollywood style. That said, period pieces tend to rule this category and it doesn’t get much more period than who I think will win.

Jane Eyre

Makeup

Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle, Albert Nobbs
Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland, The Iron Lady

Not a lot to say here except that one of these films was more or less carried entirely by the makeup on screen. The Academy always seems to be impressed when they make people look old, too.

The Iron Lady

Cinematography

The Artist
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

There’s really no question of who should win. Emmanuel Lubezki’s photographry in The Tree of Life is simply stunning. Words can’t begin to describe how beautifully shot every second of that film is. I’m pretty sure the Academy will vote the same way. The film was liked enough to get a Best Picture nod, though divisive enough that it won’t win that category. What everyone can agree on, however, is the cinematography.

The Tree of Life

The Musicians

Music (Original Score)

John Williams, The Adventures of Tintin
Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Howard Shore, Hugo
Alberto Iglesias, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
John Williams, War Horse

My hands down favorite here is Alberto Iglesias’ jazzy, moody score for Tinker Tailor. Alas, there’s no way it pulls out a win here, so I’ll just have to get over that. The likely winner will be Ludovic Bource’s score for The Artist. It’s a noble score and well composed, but I’m also left a little cold with the fact that the most powerful musical moment in the film is set to a piece from Bernard Hermann’s score for the Hitchcock film Vertigo. It bothers me a little that Bource would get the win here in light of that, but I don’t think the Academy will care.

Ludovic Bource

Music (Original Song)

“Man or Muppet” from The Muppets, Bret McKenzie
“Real in Rio” from Rio, Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown and Siedah Garrett

I have no opinion about this category. Let’s go Muppets.

“Man or Muppet

The Others

Documentary Feature

Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated

I’ve seen Hell and Tree Falls and thought both were entirely average. It seems like the Academy left a lot of excellent documentaries out of the nominations this year. My guess is it will come down to Paradise Lost 3 (given that it’s the culmination of a really well loved series of documentaries about the Robin Hood Hill murders) and Undefeated, which plays somewhat like a real life Blind Side. Hollywood loves a good underdog story, so that’s where my guess goes.

Undefeated

Best Foreign Feature

Bullhead
Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
A Separation

A Separation should run away with this category, but history tells us that the foreign film that seems like it will win quite often doesn’t. Think of Amelie losing to No Man’s Land, Pan’s Labyrinth losing to The Lives of Others and The White Ribbon losing to The Secret In Their Eyes. That’s not to detract from the films that ultimately do win (they’re quite often also very good), but it does make the category a tough one to predict. Buzz says that outside of A Separation, Monsieur Lazhar is the likely favorite, but I’ll go ahead and stick with my gut here and say:

A Separation

Best Animated Feature

A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

I haven’t seen a one of these, but smack between the populist kids movies and the artsy foreign affairs sits the likely winner.

Rango

The Storytellers

Best Original Screenplay

Michel Hazanivicius, The Artist
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

It’s been a long time since Woody Allen has made a film that was so widely beloved. There’s some strong stuff in this category (and I’m delighted to see A Separation show up with a nomination), but this year it’s Woody’s to lose.

Midnight in Paris

Best Adapted Screenplay

Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants
John Logan, Hugo
George Clooney, Beau Willimon and Grant Heslov, The Ides of March
Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Another strong set of nominees. I’d love to see Moneyball win this, giving Aaron Sorkin consecutive wins for adapting really uncinematic material. I don’t think it’ll happen. Instead, my least favorite nominee will probably take the win.

The Descendants

Film Editing

Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Kevin Tent, The Descendants
Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Thelma Schoonmaker, Hugo
Christopher Tellefsen, Moneyball

It’s often said that a movie is made in the editing room. Given the fact that The Artist is a silent film, the editing becomes even more important as the way to tell the film’s story. It’s a beloved movie and it will do really well tonight. Put your money on it.

The Artist

Best Director

Michel Hazanivicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see Terrence Malick win this award. The Tree of Life is an absolute masterpiece that deserves recognition as such. Alas, The Artist train will roll on.

Michel Hazanivicius

The Players

Supporting Actress

Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help

This is a category that’s prone to surprises. Melissa McCarthy, while a popular choice, would still be a big surprise. It could happen! That’s not how I’d vote, though. It’s a really tough vote because the other four nominees are all really excellent and deserving, but I’d probably vote Bejo. She really won me over with a couple of key scenes and I found her effortless charming throughout. The Academy, however, will likely go with one of The Help.

Octavia Spencer

Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

The old guy category. The lifetime achievement category. Call it whatever you will, it’ll come down to Plummer or von Sydow. I loved the former a lot and I’m pretty positive the Academy did, too. Probably the closest to a sure thing we’ll see all night.

Christopher Plummer

Best Actress

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

The second closest sure thing we’ll see all night, put your money down on Viola Davis. She turns in a huge performance, elevating mediocre material and making Aibileen Clark a character with tremendous depth. Meryl Streep could have stolen this, but unfortunately, The Iron Lady is simply a bad, bad movie. I’m going to agree with the Academy here.

Viola Davis

Best Actor

Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Gary Oldman gives a tremendous performance by doing very little and I’d love to see him win. He deserves it and his work as the understated and inscrutable George Smiley would be a good way for the Academy to show their appreciation. Brad Pitt comes in a close second. Sadly, neither of them will win. It’s Artist time again and I can’t deny that Jean Dujardin deserves all the praise that’s been heaped on him. He was born to play this role and he’ll be honored justly.

Jean Dujardin

The Grand Prize

Best Picture

War Horse
The Artist
Moneyball
The Descendants
The Tree of Life
Midnight in Paris
The Help
Hugo
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

You may have caught my praise of Tree of Life above. It deserves Best Picture so much that it literally pains me to not put it down on my prediction ballot. Alas, the favorite seems to be The Artist. It’s a safe bet on a fluffy feel good film. It’s neat that it’ll be the first silent film to win Best Picture since the very first Academy Awards ceremony, but neat doesn’t beat amazing. Life moves on, right?